ARIMA-Based Forecasting of Rice and Maize Production and Its Implications for Food Security in Kutai Kartanegara Regency

Abstract

Food security remains a strategic issue in regions experiencing rapid population growth, including Kutai Kartanegara Regency, a buffer region for the development of the Nusantara Capital City. Population growth increases food demand and may create imbalances between production and demand. This study aimed to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast rice and maize production, compare forecasting performance across commodities, and analyse implications for regional food security using the production-to-demand ratio. Annual time-series data from 2010 to 2024 on rice and maize production, population size, and per capita rice consumption were analysed using the Box–Jenkins approach. ARIMA(0,1,1) was selected for both commodities after first-order differencing. The model provided a stronger statistical representation for rice, whereas the non-significant MA(1) parameter for maize indicated greater uncertainty. Forecasts for 2025–2028 indicated increasing rice production from 326,651 to 349,003 tons and maize production from 37,383 to 41,144 tons, with greater uncertainty for maize. The production-to-demand ratio indicated that rice production exceeded estimated demand, whereas maize production remained below estimated demand throughout the forecast period. These findings indicate that production forecasts should be interpreted alongside food demand, as increasing production does not necessarily eliminate commodity-specific deficits. Therefore, regional food security policies should maintain rice production while strengthening maize productivity and production capacity to reduce the projected maize deficit.